Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if the National Hurricane Center operationally classifies the system initially designated Invest 92L as a Tropical Depression or stronger in an official advisory no later than 12:00 on August 16, 2026. Otherwise NO. If upgraded to a Tropical Storm it would be named "Dolly".
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 62%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just three days left and the forecast still uncertain, I doubt Invest 92L gets upgraded to a Tropical Depression in time. The NHC hasn’t shown enough strength so far.

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