Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 29YES if the U.S. National Hurricane Center posts on its website a Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory, an intermediate advisory, or a warning by 12:00 PM on July 29, 2026 that explicitly states the tropical cyclone formed from the disturbance previously labeled Invest 91L or otherwise links the advisory to Invest 91L. If the NHC website is offline but an archived NHC product meeting the same criteria exists with a timestamp on or before that time, use the archived product. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled72%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied evidence shows that the NHC initiated Tropical Cyclone advisories on the system that had been labeled Invest 91L. ClickOrlando (published 2026-07-19) states that "The NHC initiated advisories on TD 2 at 11 a.m. Sunday." WeatherTiger (2026-07-19) and TheEyeWall (2026-07-19) explicitly report that Invest 91L was reclassified/ upgraded to Tropical Depression Two. Together these contemporaneous sources indicate the U.S. National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Cyclone public advisories classifying the system as a Tropical Depression (and later as a named tropical storm) and linking that cyclone to the disturbance previously labeled Invest 91L — well before the July 29, 2026 12:00 PM deadline. Confidence is reduced from maximum because the supplied excerpts are news/analysis pages reporting the NHC action rather than a verbatim NHC advisory text included in the evidence, but the independent sources consistently report the NHC initiation of advisories tying the cyclone to Invest 91L.
Source: weathertiger.substack.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh it’s definitely gonna be something by then. invest 91L sounds like it’s ready to party. get your raincoats ready! ☔️

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