Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

77%
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65%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, by the resolution date, an official U.S. tropical-cyclone advisory (for example from the National Hurricane Center or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center) designates the same system that was publicly identified as Invest 90E in the source article as a tropical storm and assigns it the name Dolly. Otherwise NO. The name must appear in an official U.S. government tropical-cyclone advisory; informal forecasts or unverified social posts do not count. If 'Dolly' is applied to a different, unrelated system, that does not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current forecasts, Invest 90E has a solid chance of becoming Tropical Storm Dolly. It’s already showing organized convection, and with just over four days left, I’d place my bets on it happening.

77%
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23%
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67%
Stable · last 24h

82%
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54%
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