Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude ≥5.6 whose epicenter is located in Indonesia on or after 00:00 UTC on September 7, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on September 10, 2026. The USGS catalog is the primary source, but equivalent contemporaneous reports from Indonesia's national seismological agency or multiple independent reputable news outlets specifying a magnitude ≥5.6 within the same UTC window also suffice. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 10, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 48 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

34%

Predictions made

48

Credits staked

1,227

Comments

0

Opened

Sep 6, 2026

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 10, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 10, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 34% and NO 66%, based on 48 predictions and 1.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.