Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one earthquake with reported magnitude of at least 6.2 is recorded as occurring in Indonesia on or after August 18, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 21, 2026 (UTC), according to the USGS earthquake catalog. Otherwise NO. Magnitude and location are taken from the event entry as shown at resolution time. If those values are revised before resolution, the revised values govern.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 29%, based on 71 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

29%

Predictions made

71

Credits staked

1,803

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 21, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 29% and NO 71%, based on 71 predictions and 1.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.