Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia occurring at or after 00:00 on August 16, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 19, 2026. If the USGS catalog is not available or does not list such an event, an earthquake reported with magnitude 5.9 or greater and located in Indonesia by at least two independent reputable seismological agencies or by major international news organisations will be accepted. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 51 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

40%

Predictions made

51

Credits staked

1,337

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 15, 2026

Closes

Aug 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 19, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 40% and NO 60%, based on 51 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.