Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists one or more earthquakes with USGS-reported magnitude at least 5.5 and epicenter within Indonesia, with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 5, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 8, 2026. Independent corroboration by national seismological agencies or reputable news outlets is also acceptable. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 47 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

36%

Predictions made

47

Credits staked

1,179

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 5, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 8, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 36% and NO 64%, based on 47 predictions and 1.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.