Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

30%
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47%
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YES if on 23 September 2026 the Parliament of Catalonia's public agenda lists Illa for that date and the Parliament's official minutes record him as speaking in a plenary session or a parliamentary committee meeting held that day, or if two or more independent Spanish news outlets report he appeared and spoke in a formal parliamentary session of the Parlament on that date. Otherwise NO. If a scheduled appearance is cancelled or postponed, or Illa only submits a written statement without being recorded as attending and speaking, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 47%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI don't see Illa making this appearance. With only 14 days left and no confirmation on the agenda yet, it's unlikely he'll speak at the Parlament.

30%
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29%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

76%
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69%
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62%
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