Will Hurricane Marie reach Saffir–Simpson Category 3, a major hurricane?

🤖 Context

YES if, at any time no later than September 8, 2026, an official advisory from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) / CONAGUA or from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) explicitly classifies Hurricane Marie as Saffir–Simpson Category 3, i.e., reports maximum sustained winds that meet Category 3 thresholds. YES also if, by that cutoff, at least two independent major news organizations clearly report that an official meteorological agency designated Marie Category 3. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

34%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

175

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 9, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 34% and NO 66%, based on 7 predictions and 175 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Hurricane Marie reach Saffir–Simpson Category 3, a major hurricane?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Hurricane Marie reach Saffir–Simpson Category 3, a major hurricane?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.