Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?

91%
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76%
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YES if, between 16:30 UTC on October 9, 2026 and no later than 06:00 on October 11, 2026, the center of Hurricane Isaias crosses the U.S. Gulf Coast shoreline anywhere from eastern Texas through the Florida Panhandle (center moving from over water to over land), and that crossing is explicitly reported in a public advisory or bulletin by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) or by a local National Weather Service (NWS) office, or is clearly and unambiguously called "landfall" by at least two independent major news organizations. Otherwise NO. • Only a center crossing (center moving from water to land) counts. Reports that only describe onshore impacts do not qualify. • Source: U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) or a local National Weather Service (NWS) office. Major news organizations (for example AP or Reuters) may also qualify if at least two independently report "landfall".
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 10, 2026. The outcome will be settled against theweathernetwork.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 59 predictions.
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91%
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