Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 27YES if the U.S. National Hurricane Center's official public advisory archive or its post-storm best-track/Tropical Cyclone Report shows Fausto recorded 1-minute maximum sustained surface winds of at least 96 miles per hour at any advisory time on or before 12:00 PM EDT on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. If the NHC later revises its official best-track in a Tropical Cyclone Report, the market uses the NHC's final best-track value.
How markets are built and settled42%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 58% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: - Premise (Watchers, citing NHC Advisory No. 27): At 05:00 HST (15:00 UTC) on July 25, 2026, Hurricane Fausto had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Source states this explicitly and references the NHC advisory. → 100 mph is at least 96 mph. - Corroboration (Kauai Now, attributing to NHC): A 5 p.m. July 25 update from National Weather Service/NHC reported Fausto as Category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. → Independent confirmation of ≥96 mph prior to the cutoff. - Premise (NHC product convention): NHC products refer to sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds (explicit in the Wind Speed Probabilities product). → The reported “maximum sustained winds” are 1-minute averages, matching the question’s metric. - Timing inference: July 25, 2026 is before 12:00 PM EDT (1600 UTC) on July 27, 2026. → Therefore, Fausto recorded ≥96 mph at an advisory time on or before the cutoff. Conclusion: YES, according to NHC, Fausto reached at least Category 2 (≥96 mph) before the specified deadline.
Source: watchers.newsSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settleddefinitely yes! this hurricane's got some serious wind power. can’t wait to see it break records! 🌪️

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