Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?

29%
Stable · last 24h

37%
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Resolved: No
Results Jul 26YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) publishes on its WebAviso product an official advisory for "Huracán Fausto" at or before 00:00 on July 26, 2026 (UTC−06:00) that either (a) has a non-empty "Zona de vigilancia" field listing one or more Mexican states, or (b) explicitly states that Fausto "genera efectos en el país" or uses equivalent wording indicating Fausto will produce effects in Mexican territory. Any single advisory that matches counts. If SMN posts the advisory content for this system on a different official CONAGUA/SMN product, that official SMN/CONAGUA publication will be used for resolution. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied SMN WebAviso page shows an active advisory entry for ‘Huracán Fausto’ (WebAviso lists “Huracán Fausto 23” with an emission timestamp 2026-07-25 21:00), and multiple supplied news items quoting SMN/CONAGUA advisories (Infobae 2026-07-20; Milenio 2026-07-20; Diario de México 2026-07-21; Informador 2026-07-23) report that SMN stated Fausto did NOT represent danger to Mexico, did NOT produce effects in the country (e.g. “no provoca lluvias ni otros efectos meteorológicos en el país” / “no representa peligro para el territorio nacional”), and that no “zonas de vigilancia” were established. None of the provided evidence shows a WebAviso advisory for Fausto that contains a non-empty “Zona de vigilancia” listing Mexican states or that says Fausto “genera efectos en el país.” Based on the supplied evidence, the condition in (a) or (b) was not met, so the correct settlement is NO.
Source: smn.conagua.gob.mxSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh, totally! mother nature loves a good drama. expect some hurricane warnings way before the deadline! 🌪️

29%
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63%
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80%
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90%
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87%
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90%
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