Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Bab al-Mandeb between July 25 and August 7, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 00:00 on July 25, 2026 and 23:59:59 on August 7, 2026 (UTC+3), UK Maritime Trade Operations, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / U.S. Central Command, or the International Maritime Organization publish an advisory on their official websites confirming that Houthi forces or Houthi-affiliated groups carried out an attack on a commercial (non-state) vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandeb, or immediate approaches. Otherwise NO. If the only reports are from social media or commercial vessel-tracking services without confirmation on the named official sites, the market resolves NO.