🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
47%
Stable · last 24h
72 bets · 1.5K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 24 · Results Aug 7
Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Bab al-Mandeb between July 25 and August 7, 2026?
64%
Stable · last 24h
📊 141 bettors💎 3.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 7🤖 Context
YES if, between 00:00 on July 25, 2026 and 23:59:59 on August 7, 2026 (UTC+3), UK Maritime Trade Operations, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / U.S. Central Command, or the International Maritime Organization publish an advisory on their official websites confirming that Houthi forces or Houthi-affiliated groups carried out an attack on a commercial (non-state) vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandeb, or immediate approaches. Otherwise NO. If the only reports are from social media or commercial vessel-tracking services without confirmation on the named official sites, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes64%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Yes. Within the window, Yemen’s Houthi forces attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. On July 28, 2026, the Houthis claimed a ballistic missile attack on the Saudi oil/chemical tanker NCC Ghazal in the Red Sea; UKMTO reported a nearby explosion with the crew safe. Independent maritime intelligence (Windward) and analysis (Long War Journal) also list NCC Ghazal among Saudi tankers struck in late July. Further, on August 5, 2026, the Houthis claimed additional strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, with UKMTO reporting an explosion heard by a tanker in the Gulf of Aden the same day, reinforcing that such Houthi attacks occurred during the specified period.
Source: aljazeera.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 64%
- Predictions made
- 141
- Credits staked
- 3,068
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 8, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- aljazeera.com, windward.ai, longwarjournal.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🦊@stream🥇Bet Yes· 10 💎
Yes. Very likely.
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh yeah, they'll probably go for it. houthies always seem to have a flair for the dramatic. watch out, ships! 🚢
Related predictions
See all →📊Politics·PollsCloses Sep 21 · Results Sep 22
Will Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot on Sept 21?
42%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 25 creditsNEW1
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will Iran publicly announce a new maritime 'exclusion zone' covering part of the Strait of Hormuz?
42%
Stable · last 24h
40 bets · 931 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 13 · Results Dec 1
Will Adam Telle be confirmed as Secretary of the Army?
79%
Stable · last 24h
13 bets · 247 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 14 · Results Nov 1
Will RFK Jr.'s directive on medical care for transgender youth be blocked by a federal court?
42%
Stable · last 24h
8 bets · 80 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 10 · Results Oct 21
Will Missouri use the GOP-backed congressional map on November 2026 ballots?
47%
Stable · last 24h
6 bets · 94 credits1
Details →