Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Bab el‑Mandeb or southern Red Sea?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 00:00 on 12 August 2026 and 23:59:59 on 18 August 2026 inclusive (UTC+3), at least one commercially‑operated vessel is publicly reported to have been struck or to have been the target of an attempted or successful boarding or an attempted/actual strike using missiles, drones, torpedoes, rockets, or explosive devices in the Bab el‑Mandeb strait or waters commonly charted as the southern Red Sea. The reporting must explicitly attribute the incident to Houthi forces (also called Ansar Allah) via an official statement from a national navy, coast guard, maritime authority, or the vessel’s operator, or via at least one major international news agency (for example AP, Reuters, or BBC). Unverified social‑media posts without corroboration by those sources do not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 54%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

54%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

200

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 11, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 19, 2026

Resolution source

apnews.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 54% and NO 46%, based on 8 predictions and 200 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against apnews.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Bab el‑Mandeb or southern Red Sea?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Bab el‑Mandeb or southern Red Sea?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.