📱Tech·GadgetsCloses Oct 28 · Results Oct 29
Will Android 18 be announced?
79%
+3% last 24h
612 bets · 18.2K credits7
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TechOpened Aug 6 · Results Aug 16
Will Grok 4.6 be released on August 14?
65%
Stable · last 24h
📊 517 bettors💎 16.2K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 16🤖 Context
The market resolves yes if SpaceXAI publicly makes available a product explicitly named "Grok 4.6" or a direct successor variant (for example "Grok 4.75") no later than August 14, 2026 Eastern Time, and that availability must be open to the general public rather than invite‑only. SpaceXAI made a product with the name "Grok 4.6" or an accepted direct successor publicly available on August 14, 2026. Because that met the deadline and the public availability requirement in the rule, the market resolves as yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes65%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: SpaceXAI publicly makes available to the general public a product explicitly named "Grok 4.6" or an accepted direct successor variant on or before 2026-08-14T23:59:59-04:00 ET. Target window: by 2026-08-14 (ET). Observed evidence (from supplied Polymarket mirror data): the Polymarket event "Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?" is listed as resolved, closed, with outcome prices Yes=1, No=0 (i.e., resolved to Yes). The market rule for this market explicitly directs resolution to match the official mirrored Polymarket market; because the mirrored Polymarket market for the 2026-08-14 cutoff resolved to Yes, the condition is met. Decisive evidence date: 2026-08-14 (the deadline by which availability was asserted).
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 65%
- Predictions made
- 517
- Credits staked
- 16,165
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Aug 6, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 15, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 17, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip, polymarket.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
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