Will Great Sitkin drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program (USGS) records Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level as "NORMAL" at any time strictly after 00:00 on September 4, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 7, 2026. Preferred evidence is a USGS notice or the USGS Volcano Updates entry for Great Sitkin, or mainstream outlets that explicitly cite USGS. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 16%, based on 47 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

16%

Predictions made

47

Credits staked

1,527

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Sep 4, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 7, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 16% and NO 84%, based on 47 predictions and 1.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Great Sitkin drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Great Sitkin drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.