Will Great Sitkin be put on "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent)?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program posts Great Sitkin's official Volcano Alert Level as "WARNING" at any time strictly after 00:00 on September 5, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 on September 8, 2026, otherwise NO. Preferably this is according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program (Volcano Notification Service or the "Volcano Updates" listing), but independent reputable news reports quoting USGS are acceptable. If USGS posts multiple updates, any "WARNING" posted during the window counts, even if later reverted. Updates timestamped exactly at either window endpoint do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 41 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

32%

Predictions made

41

Credits staked

1,179

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 5, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 8, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 32% and NO 68%, based on 41 predictions and 1.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Great Sitkin be put on "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Great Sitkin be put on "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.