ScienceOpened Jul 26 · Results Jul 30

Will Great Sitkin be put on "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent) before July 30, 2026?

27%

Stable · last 24h

📊 56 bettors💎 1.3K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 30

🤖 Context

YES if, according to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Updates page or an official USGS Volcano Notification Service notice, Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level is recorded as "WARNING" at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on July 27, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 30, 2026. Otherwise NO. If the USGS Volcano Updates page and VNS are unavailable at the scheduled resolution time, the market will use the first subsequent official USGS publication that reports Great Sitkin's alert level for any time within that window.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

27%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level must be WARNING at any time strictly after 2026-07-27T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z. Target window: (2026-07-27T00:00:00Z, 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z). Observed data (USGS Volcano Updates page retrieved 2026-07-30 06:00 UTC): Great Sitkin = WATCH, level unchanged since 2021-07-23T22:25:55Z (latest notice timestamped 2026-07-29T18:29:38Z). The 'level unchanged since' timestamp is well before the window start, so the alert level was constant WATCH throughout the entire window and was not WARNING at any time within it. Therefore the condition was not met -> NO.

Source: usgs.gov