ScienceOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 27

Will Great Sitkin be put on "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent) before July 27, 2026?

16%

Stable · last 24h

📊 81 bettors💎 1.5K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 27

🤖 Context

YES if Great Sitkin's official Volcano Alert Level was set to "WARNING" at any time after 00:00 UTC on July 24, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on July 27, 2026 according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Updates page. Otherwise NO. If the USGS official record for Great Sitkin is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved using the first USGS alert-level entry for Great Sitkin published after 00:00 UTC on July 27, 2026.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

16%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 84% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: Did USGS set Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level to "WARNING" at any time after 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z and before 2026-07-27T00:00:00Z? Target window: (2026-07-24 00:00:00 UTC, 2026-07-27 00:00:00 UTC). Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-07-27 06:00 UTC): "Great Sitkin: WATCH — level unchanged since 2021-07-23 22:25:55 UTC." The last-change timestamp (2021-07-23 22:25:55 UTC) is before the window start, so the alert level was WATCH throughout the entire window and was not WARNING at any time in the window. Therefore outcome = NO.

Source: usgs.gov