Will a Russian state ship or military aircraft board, seize, or forcibly divert a foreign‑flagged merchant vessel in the Mediterranean?

17%
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55%
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YES if, no later than September 7, 2026, the official minutes, agreement, or press release published by the State Congress of Sinaloa (H. Congreso del Estado de Sinaloa) show the legislature voted to authorize or accept an indefinite leave for Rubén Rocha Moya. Official actas or agreements from the H. Congreso are preferred, but contemporaneous reporting from major national outlets that quote the official record also counts. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 55%, based on 3 predictions.
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17%
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62%
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22%
Stable · last 24h

67%
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53%
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50%
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