Will ChatGPT be the #1 free app in the US App Store on September 11?

83%
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59%
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YES if, no later than September 16, 2026, a U.S. bankruptcy court has entered a written order approving the sale or transfer of the assets described in Spirit Aviation Holdings’ sale process to Google or to a clearly identified Google-affiliated entity, and the court order or docket names Google or that affiliate as the buyer. The preferred authoritative evidence is the bankruptcy court's official docket and written order. Corroboration from multiple independent major news organizations such as Reuters, Bloomberg, the Associated Press, or Ars Technica is also allowed. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against arstechnica.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 59%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
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50%
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96%
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