Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

91%
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44%
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YES if Google publishes a publicly accessible registration or claim page or a documented promotion no later than September 30, 2026 that lets eligible U.S. college students sign up and receive one free year of Google AI Pro. The offer must be redeemable by at least some real U.S. college students via the public claim flow, not merely announced as "coming soon" or limited to a private test. The fact must be shown on Google's official Gemini student page, Google blog or support pages, or corroborated by reporting in major tech outlets such as 9to5Google, TechCrunch, or The Verge.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5google.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 11 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGoogle's track record suggests they'll push this out before the deadline. A public claim page feels likely, especially with college students in the mix. I'm betting on a yes.

91%
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95%
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50%
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41%
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76%
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50%
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