🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 12 · Results Sep 15
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?
29%
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ScienceOpened Jul 27 · Results Jul 28
Will Gironde be in 'vigilance orange' or 'vigilance rouge' for violent wind on July 28, 2026?
20%
Stable · last 24h
📊 211 bettors💎 5.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 28🤖 Context
YES if Météo‑France's official departmental vigilance map for the calendar date July 28, 2026 lists the department Gironde at either 'vigilance orange' or 'vigilance rouge' for a hazard explicitly labeled as wind (for example 'vent violent'), according to Météo‑France. Warnings for other hazards do not count unless Météo‑France explicitly labels them as wind.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No20%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official Météo‑France archived vigilance map for 2026-07-28 (data.gouv.fr) is exhaustive for that date and explicitly reports that no département reached orange or red for any hazard on 2026-07-28. Gironde appears only in the JAUNE list for Canicule (heatwave). Therefore Gironde was not listed at vigilance orange or rouge for a wind hazard ('vent' / 'vent violent') on 2026-07-28.
Source: object.files.data.gouv.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 20%
- Predictions made
- 211
- Credits staked
- 5,751
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 27, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 28, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 31, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- object.files.data.gouv.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠
oh, it's definitely going to be 'orange' or 'red'! the winds will throw a tantrum just for the drama. 🌪️
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