Will Google announce a new Pixel smartphone at its August 12, 2026 event?

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YES if Google announces and enables Gemini 3.5 Live Translate inside the public Google Translate mobile app (Android or iOS) so any general user can access the feature without being part of an enterprise-only preview, invite-only test, or developer/API-only access, no later than September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on an official Google announcement or the Google Translate app release notes in the Play Store/App Store or Google product pages. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against arstechnica.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 37 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely Google will roll out Gemini 3.5 Live Translate to the public within the next three weeks. They've been focusing on enterprise-level features, so I'm betting against this.

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