Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?

12%
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66%
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YES if, between 8:30:58 PM UTC on October 3, 2026 and no later than October 10, 2026, credible reporting by two or more independent authoritative news outlets states that G7 leaders or G7 foreign ministers issued a public joint declaration or communiqué announcing a coordinated new sanctions package specifically targeting Russia and explicitly presented as a response to the strikes on Kyiv's bridges. Otherwise NO. • The announcement must be a joint public declaration or communiqué by G7 leaders or G7 foreign ministers. A unilateral sanctions announcement by a single G7 country does not count. • The reporting window starts at 8:30:58 PM UTC on October 3, 2026 and ends inclusive no later than October 10, 2026. • Source: Multiple independent authoritative news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 66%, based on 394 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe G7 politicians are currently all focused on the OAT/Bunds spread and the French budget for 2027 since last week. The war in Ukraine is largely sidelined at the moment.
The previous sanctions have all proven counterproductive, but especially a possible peace agreement occurring in the meantime would render them useless and irrelevant.
They just don't have the guts to oppose Russia...
Of course they only do that
No time

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60%
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40%
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64%
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11%
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46%
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