Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 20This market will resolve to YES if French judokas collectively win 3 or more medals (gold, silver, or bronze) at the European Open Senior in Sarajevo on July 18, 2026. It will resolve to NO if they win 2 or fewer medals.
How markets are built and settled66%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: FranceJudo's event report for the Sarajevo European Open (published 2026-07-20) explicitly states that no French judoka appear in the event medal table (the competition ran 18–19 July 2026). Independent news reports covering the same event (AGERPRES and BTA) list the medallists and medal-winning nations (Germany, Serbia, Georgia, Romania, etc.) and do not list any French medallists. These contemporaneous sources show France won zero medals at the Sarajevo European Open, which is fewer than three.
Source: francejudo.comSources used to resolve this market
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