Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

29%
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63%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Francesca Hong is shown as the top vote‑getter (the winner) in the official vote tallies for the Democratic primary for Governor of Wisconsin held on August 11, 2026, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission's official results page. If that page has not posted returns, official county canvass pages or the Wisconsin Secretary of State's official results may be used. If the official posted tally shows an exact tie, this market resolves YES only if the state's official tiebreaking procedure records Francesca Hong as the nominee. If the primary is postponed, cancelled, or no official winner is reported, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against san.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that the voting closes today, if Francesca Hong is leading in the tallies, it's likely she’ll win, especially if the turnout has been strong for her campaign.

29%
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43%
Stable · last 24h

74%
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18%
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42%
Stable · last 24h

19%
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