OtherResults Aug 16

Will France’s GDP growth exceed 0.5% in Q2 2026?

34%

Stable · last 24h

📊 519 bettors💎 15.4K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Aug 16

🤖 Context

The market rule said it pays YES only if INSEE or Banque de France publishes official data showing France’s GDP growth for Q2 2026 greater than 0.5%. Published reports and nowcasts show quarter-on-quarter growth of about +0.2% for Q2 2026, with Reuters reporting 0.2% on 30 July 2026 and BNP Paribas nowcasts from 15 June and 23 July 2026 pointing to the same figure. Because +0.2% is below the 0.5% threshold, the rule was not met, so the market resolves to no.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

34%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The evidence in the pool reports France’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter) at about +0.2%, well below the 0.5% threshold. Reuters (30 Jul 2026) states that Germany, France and Italy each expanded by 0.2% on the quarter, and BNP Paribas nowcasts (15 Jun and 23 Jul 2026) also point to roughly +0.2% q/q for France in Q2. Those reported quarter-on-quarter figures do not exceed 0.5%, so the correct settlement is NO.

Source: reuters.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 34%
Predictions made: 519
Credits staked: 15,419
Comments: 5
Opened: May 25, 2026
Closes: Aug 15, 2026
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026
Outcome: No
Resolution source: reuters.com, economic-research.bnpparibas.com

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 5 comments

💀
@m11Bet No· 10 💎
No
Aug 15
🔥
@sylvie.hypeBet No· 100 💎
I don't believe it, I'm betting no.
Aug 15
🪙
@ggdu77Bet No· 100 💎
Not very well started to reach it
Aug 14
🐷
@frederic27180Bet No· 20 💎
Difficult to reach, I don't think so, so NO
Aug 9
🪙
@jasmineBet No· 30 💎
No
Aug 2

482 bets · 10.6K credits1

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