Will fewer than 9,000 migrants be in Ceuta on August 19?

🤖 Context

YES if, on August 19, 2026 at 12:00 CEST, a single official numeric figure published or publicly stated by the authorities of the Autonomous City of Ceuta is strictly less than 9,000 and is explicitly described as the number of migrants "currently in the city". Otherwise NO. If no single official number is published at that time, a figure identified as the official "current" count by at least two major Spanish news organisations (for example EFE, RTVE, El País) will be accepted. Published ranges or estimates such as "around X" do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 9 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

50%

Predictions made

9

Credits staked

128

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 12, 2026

Closes

Aug 19, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 19, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 50% and NO 50%, based on 9 predictions and 128 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will fewer than 9,000 migrants be in Ceuta on August 19?” real-money betting?

No. “Will fewer than 9,000 migrants be in Ceuta on August 19?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.