Will fewer than 8,000 migrants be present in Ceuta?

🤖 Context

YES if an official figure published no later than 12:00 CEST on August 17, 2026 by the Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta, the Delegación del Gobierno en Ceuta, or the Ministerio del Interior, or if at least two independent major Spanish news outlets cite those official figures, states the number of migrants present in Ceuta at that timestamp is strictly less than 8,000. If multiple official sources publish differing totals for that same timestamp, the figure published by the Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta should be used where available. Otherwise NO. 'Present in Ceuta' means the population counted by the cited official source, for example people in reception centres, in custody, or otherwise reported as present.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 15 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

42%

Predictions made

15

Credits staked

360

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 13, 2026

Closes

Aug 17, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 42% and NO 58%, based on 15 predictions and 360 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will fewer than 8,000 migrants be present in Ceuta?” real-money betting?

No. “Will fewer than 8,000 migrants be present in Ceuta?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.