Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

24%
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42%
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YES if two or more independent Spanish news organisations report that Fernando Grande‑Marlaska took part in the official Senate Interior Commission session on August 20, 2026 and gave testimony or information about his Ministry's actions in the Ceuta migration crisis. Participation counts if he attended in the chamber or was formally recorded as a speaker, including formally recorded remote participation. Resolution will be based on the Senate's published session record and mainstream Spanish reporting (for example EFE, RTVE, El País).
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that he's been under pressure regarding the Ceuta crisis, I expect Grande-Marlaska will show up. Independent coverage will likely confirm his participation.

24%
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39%
Stable · last 24h

26%
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63%
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65%
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18%
Stable · last 24h
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