Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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27%
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YES if, no later than August 23, 2026, there is a public, verifiable announcement or official record showing that Fernando Farías Laguna was physically in Mexican custody on Mexican territory and was handed over to or presented before Mexican federal authorities. Acceptable evidence includes an official press release or statement from the Secretaría de Marina (SEMAR) or the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR), or a court filing showing presentation to a judge. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 27%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that we’re only days away from the deadline, and with no verifiable reports yet, I doubt we’ll see an official announcement about Farías Laguna's return to Mexico.

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66%
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45%
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43%
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