Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if, no later than 00:00 on August 21, 2026, Fernando Alonso issues a public statement, team press release, or interview that explicitly declares he will end his Formula 1 driving career and will not compete as a race driver in the 2027 championship. Ambiguous comments (for example “considering retirement”, “will decide later”, or a temporary sabbatical) count as NO. Resolution will be based on an official statement from Fernando Alonso, his team Aston Martin, or Formula1.com.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledAlonso is still competing at a high level, so I doubt he'll announce retirement just yet. The clock is ticking, and he’s likely to keep fans guessing until the last moment.

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