Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?

26%
Stable · last 24h

79%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, for the launch attempt that begins in the window opening at 3:59 a.m. PDT on September 6, 2026, official SpaceX mission updates or widely reported independent coverage (for example Spaceflight Now, Reuters, or AP) state that first-stage booster B1088 performed a controlled landing on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You" (i.e., touched down on that named vessel and was reported as landed). Otherwise NO. Splashdown, uncontrolled impact, or a landing on a different recovery site are not YES, and if no launch attempt occurs during that scheduled window the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 79%, based on 35 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and SpaceX's track record, I believe booster B1088 will successfully land on the droneship. They've been consistent with these missions lately.

26%
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65%
Stable · last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h

58%
-3% last 24h

77%
+1% last 24h
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