Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?

29%
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61%
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YES if, following a Falcon 9 liftoff for USSF‑153 on September 10, 2026 (PDT), the first stage with tail number B1081 is reported to have made a controlled upright touchdown on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You and is described in mission updates or independent reporting as having 'landed' or 'recovered'. NO if the booster is not reported as having landed upright on that droneship, or if no liftoff attempt for USSF‑153 occurs on September 10, 2026. Resolution sources may include SpaceX mission updates, United States Space Force statements, Spaceflight Now, Reuters, the AP, or major broadcasters.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 10, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 61%, based on 13 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven SpaceX’s track record, I’d bet on a successful landing of B1081. They've been consistent with their landing attempts, and we're just a few days away from the launch.

29%
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61%
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42%
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54%
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49%
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59%
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