🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 3
Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?
74%
+40% last 24h
1779 bets · 53K credits6
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ScienceResults Aug 2
Will ESA’s SMILE spacecraft successfully transmit its first scientific observations of Earth's magnetosphere by July 31, 2026?
56%
Stable · last 24h
📊 8 bettors💎 183 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 2🤖 Context
YES if the SMILE spacecraft (Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer), launched 19 May 2026, has delivered and publicly confirmed at least one set of scientific observations of Earth’s magnetosphere by 31 July 2026. NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No56%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 56%
- Predictions made
- 8
- Credits staked
- 183
- Comments
- 0
- Opened
- May 22, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 2, 2026
- Outcome
- No
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