ScienceOpened Jun 6 · Results Sep 22

Will ESA’s MTG‑I2 (Meteosat Third Generation Imager) satellite launch successfully in Summer 2026?

71%

Stable · last 24h

📊 214 bettors💎 5K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Sep 22

🤖 Context

The market resolves yes if the MTG‑I2 Imager is launched successfully into orbit between June 21 and September 22, 2026, and that launch is confirmed by ESA or EUMETSAT. EUMETSAT’s record shows the launch at 22:10 CEST on August 27, 2026, and Arianespace plus a BusinessWire/EUMETSAT release also report a successful MTG‑I2 launch on August 27, 2026 and the subsequent handover. Because these confirmations show a successful launch on August 27, 2026, which falls inside the June 21 through September 22 window, the market resolves yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

71%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence unambiguously report that MTG‑I2 was launched successfully on 27 August 2026. Arianespace’s press release states the mission successfully launched MTG‑I2 on 27 August 2026; EUMETSAT’s ‘Image of the week’ page records the launch at 22:10 CEST on 27 August 2026; and a BusinessWire/EUMETSAT press release also references the satellite’s launch on 27 August 2026 and subsequent LEOP handover. Those independent confirmations establish the event and the date falls within the market window (2026-06-21 through 2026-09-22).

Source: newsroom.arianespace.com