🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?
90%
-1% last 24h
210 bets · 9.3K credits6
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ScienceOpened Jun 4 · Results Sep 30
Will El Niño conditions reach ‘strong’ or higher intensity by September 30, 2026?
70%
Stable · last 24h
📊 222 bettors💎 3.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 30🤖 Context
The market resolves yes if the WMO issues an El Niño advisory that classifies the ongoing El Niño as 'strong' or stronger for any month up to and including 30 September 2026. The WMO said in a 31 July 2026 press release that a strong El Niño was developing and expected to strengthen during August to October 2026, and its 3 September 2026 update reported the event was firmly established by mid August and was forecast to reach very strong intensity, while NOAA/CPC's 10 September 2026 ENSO Diagnostic carried an El Niño Advisory and reported Niño‑3.4 values around +1.8°C. Because these authoritative advisories explicitly classified the event as at least strong for months through September 2026, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes70%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Authoritative advisories and updates in the supplied evidence explicitly described the 2026 event as at least “strong” (and forecast to become “very strong”) before the September 30, 2026 cutoff. WMO’s press release dated 31 July 2026 states “A strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen during August–October 2026.” WMO’s August 2026 El Niño/La Niña Update (published 3 Sept 2026) reports El Niño was firmly established by mid‑August and forecasts it to reach “very strong” intensity before peaking. NOAA/CPC’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (10 Sept 2026) shows ENSO Alert System Status “El Niño Advisory” and reports Niño index values (Niño‑3.4 ≈ +1.8°C) consistent with a strong classification. Independent outlets (UN News, ABC, Watchers, etc.) reported the same classification/forecast. Taken together, these independent, credible advisories unambiguously indicate the El Niño was classified as “strong” or higher for months up to and including September 2026.
Source: wmo.intKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 70%
- Predictions made
- 222
- Credits staked
- 3,744
- Comments
- 0
- Opened
- Jun 4, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 30, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 1, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- wmo.int, cpc.ncep.noaa.gov, news.un.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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