Will El Niño conditions reach ‘strong’ or higher intensity by September 30, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if the WMO issues an El Niño advisory classifying the ongoing El Niño as 'strong' or higher (e.g. 'strong' or 'very strong') for any month up to and including September 2026. NO if such classification is not issued by that date.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against wmo.int. For now, the crowd puts YES at 70%, based on 158 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

70%

Predictions made

158

Credits staked

2,316

Comments

1

Opened

Jun 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 30, 2026

Resolution source

wmo.int

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 70% and NO 30%, based on 158 predictions and 2.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against wmo.int once the outcome is known.

Is “Will El Niño conditions reach ‘strong’ or higher intensity by September 30, 2026?” real-money betting?

No. “Will El Niño conditions reach ‘strong’ or higher intensity by September 30, 2026?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.