Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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69%
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YES if Real Sociedad or another club publishes an official announcement no later than August 31, 2026 stating that Edson Álvarez has joined Real Sociedad (either a permanent transfer or a loan), and the player's registration appears on Real Sociedad's official first-team roster or on published league registration lists by that cutoff. Announcements that only state "interest", "in talks", "agreement subject to medical/paperwork", or a future-dated transfer that does not take effect by that date resolve NO. Authoritative sources are Real Sociedad's official announcements or the league registration lists, with major sports outlets allowed as corroboration.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against marca.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 69%, based on 5 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just 13 days left, the likelihood is low. No official announcement yet, and ‘in talks’ doesn’t cut it. I doubt Álvarez will join Real Sociedad before the deadline.

94%
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72%
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63%
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31%
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68%
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38%
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