Will Édouard Philippe be ahead of Mélenchon in the latest poll?

🤖 Context

YES if, in the most recent "main voting‑intention" poll listed on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election" as of 00:00 CEST on 16 September 2026, Édouard Philippe's reported first‑round percentage is strictly greater than Jean‑Luc Mélenchon's reported first‑round percentage. Use the poll on that page with the latest fieldwork end date and if two polls share the same date use the one that appears first. Treat a missing or dash entry for a candidate as 0.0 percent. If the two percentages are equal to the same reported precision that is a tie and the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 71%, based on 104 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

71%

Predictions made

104

Credits staked

2,603

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 15, 2026

Resolution source

en.wikipedia.org

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 71% and NO 29%, based on 104 predictions and 2.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against en.wikipedia.org once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Édouard Philippe be ahead of Mélenchon in the latest poll?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Édouard Philippe be ahead of Mélenchon in the latest poll?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.