Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 2YES if Donald J. Trump appears in person and delivers a live, on-stage speech at the event advertised by the Republican National Committee as the "Midterm Rally" held in Durant, Oklahoma on October 1, 2026 (local calendar date). Otherwise NO. • Attendance on any date the RNC officially reschedules the advertised Durant event does not count. • Remote or pre-recorded appearances, private or separate events in Durant, and non-speaking drop-bys do not count. • Source: Republican National Committee or contemporaneous mainstream reporting with photographic or video evidence (for example: Associated Press, The Oklahoman, Durant Daily Democrat, ABC, NBC, CNN).
How markets are built and settled32%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 68% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: KOSU, published on October 1, 2026, at 9:40 PM CDT (02:40 UTC on October 2), thus well within the market boundaries, explicitly identifies the event as a stop on the midterm rallies tour organized by the Republican National Committee. The article includes a captioned photo "President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Durant on Oct. 1, 2026," and then reports that Trump appeared at the event and delivered a speech lasting over an hour.
Source: kosu.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWhy would Trump turn down an opportunity to aggrandize himself? 😂
Trump's track record at RNC events suggests he'll show up, especially with just a couple of days left. Count on him delivering a speech at the rally.

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