🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
68%
-1% last 24h
331 bets · 7.4K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 24
Will DJ Barbara Butch file a criminal complaint accusing La France Insoumise of "provocation à la haine et à la violence" before July 24, 2026?
71%
Stable · last 24h
📊 239 bettors💎 6.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 24🤖 Context
YES if, on or before 12:00 PM on July 24, 2026 (CEST), Franceinfo or Agence France‑Presse publish on their websites, or the Grenoble public prosecutor's office issues an official press release on a publicly accessible government website, confirming that Barbara Butch or her lawyer Audrey Msellati filed a criminal complaint that explicitly accuses La France Insoumise of "provocation à la haine et à la violence". Otherwise NO. Private social posts or paywalled reports do not count.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes71%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The franceinfo article published 2026-07-23 (18:35) explicitly states that "Barbara Butch a déposé plainte jeudi 23 juillet à l'encontre de La France insoumise, entre autres, pour provocation à la haine et à la violence." That is a direct confirmation on Franceinfo's website that Barbara Butch filed a complaint accusing La France Insoumise of 'provocation à la haine et à la violence'.
Source: franceinfo.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 71%
- Predictions made
- 239
- Credits staked
- 6,741
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 23, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 24, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- franceinfo.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
i'm betting no way barbara's going to take that plunge. seems more like a publicity stunt than anything else. 😂
Related predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 9 · Results Sep 11
Will Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person in Kyiv?
78%
Stable · last 24h
93 bets · 2.5K credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 1
Will a 3-month continuing resolution pass the U.S. Senate?
73%
Stable · last 24h
1 bet · 25 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
66%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 60 credits1
Details →🏛️Politics·ParliamentCloses Sep 20 · Results Sep 21
Will Leon Black give sworn testimony to the U.S. House Oversight Committee?
31%
Stable · last 24h
5 bets · 170 credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 7 · Results Sep 12
Will Missouri use the GOP-backed congressional map on ballots in the November 2026 general election?
37%
Stable · last 24h
6 bets · 75 credits1
Details →