Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 2YES if DARPA’s Robotic Servicing of Geosynchronous Satellite (RSGS) demonstrator has launched into space by 23:59 UTC on July 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official DARPA or U.S. government statement. NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent sources in the provided evidence explicitly report that the DARPA-funded RSGS payload launched on July 21, 2026. DARPA’s official news release states the Robotic Servicing of Geosynchronous Satellites payload launched from SLC-40 on July 21, 2026. The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory press release likewise reports a successful launch at about 5:15 pm on July 21, 2026. Independent news outlets Spaceflight Now and SpaceNews also report the Falcon 9 launch carrying Northrop Grumman’s Mission Robotic Vehicle with the RSGS payload on July 21, 2026. That date is before the market deadline of 23:59 UTC on July 31, 2026, so the answer is YES.
Source: darpa.milSources used to resolve this market
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