🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
69%
Stable · last 24h
211 bets · 5K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 26
Will Daniella Marques be named Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate at the PL national convention on July 25, 2026?
45%
Stable · last 24h
📊 0 bettors💎 0 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26🤖 Context
YES if Daniella Marques is explicitly named as Flávio Bolsonaro's vice-presidential running mate in the Partido Liberal (PL) official national-convention minutes or in an official PL press release published on the PL's official website on July 25, 2026, or if the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) 'DivulgaCand' database lists the ticket showing Bolsonaro as presidential candidate and Daniella Marques as vice by 12:00 PM (UTC-3) on July 26, 2026. Otherwise NO. If the PL or Republicanos publishes an official retraction or a judicial order published on the TSE or STF websites reverses the designation before 12:00 PM (UTC-3) on July 26, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No45%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied evidence shows the PL convention took place on July 25, 2026, but multiple provided news reports state the party did not officially formalize a vice-presidential pick at that event. Poder360's July 25 article (supplied) explicitly reports “Até o momento, porém, o partido não oficializou a composição da chapa presidencial” (the party had not officialized the ticket). KDHnews/AP coverage likewise says the PL nominated Flávio Bolsonaro but that a running mate had not been chosen. No PL national-convention minutes or official PL press release naming Daniella Marques are included among the supplied documents. Based on the provided evidence, Daniella Marques was not explicitly named in the PL's official convention minutes or an official PL press release on July 25, 2026.
Source: poder360.com.brKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 45%
- Predictions made
- 0
- Credits staked
- 0
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 28, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- poder360.com.br, kdhnews.com, hastingstribune.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 22 💎
no way this happens. they'd have to actually go through with it, and we all know politics is just a circus! 🎪
Related predictions
See all →🏛️Politics·ParliamentCloses Sep 20 · Results Sep 21
Will Leon Black give sworn testimony to the U.S. House Oversight Committee?
50%
Stable · last 24h
0 bets · 0 creditsNEW0
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 7 · Results Sep 12
Will Missouri use the GOP-backed congressional map on ballots in the November 2026 general election?
34%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 20 credits1
Details →📊Politics·PollsCloses Sep 19 · Results Sep 20
Will Rick Jackson be ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms in a Georgia Governor poll?
59%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 20 credits1
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 9
Will Iran be referred to the UN Security Council?
14%
Stable · last 24h
186 bets · 4.7K credits1
Details →📍Politics·LocalCloses Sep 10 · Results Oct 5
Will the voting-by-mail system described in the article face a formal federal investigation?
61%
-2% last 24h
15 bets · 240 credits1
Details →