Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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39%
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YES if Daniel Mérida is officially recorded as a semifinalist at the ATP Masters 1000 in Montreal (i.e., he won his quarterfinal match), otherwise NO. The market resolves according to the official ATP Tour tournament results and draw for Montreal, and may also be verified by multiple reputable outlets such as L'Équipe, Reuters or ESPN. If a quarterfinal is decided by walkover or retirement, resolve YES if Mérida is recorded as advancing, and if the tournament is abandoned before quarterfinals are decided, resolve according to the ATP or the tournament's official statement as reported by major outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 39%, based on 30 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledMérida's chances hinge on winning his quarterfinal match, and with just three days left, he’ll need to deliver. If he can pull it off, he’s in the semis, otherwise he won't make it.

94%
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90%
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71%
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25%
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80%
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81%
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