Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

13%
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57%
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YES if, no later than September 1, 2026 (Mexico City local date), the Gabinete de Seguridad's official website publishes at least one daily preliminary report for intentional homicides and at least one daily preliminary report for stolen vehicles, each explicitly dated for September 1, 2026. An explicit date can be a visible publication date, a 'corte al' date, or an 'informe diario' label on those pages. If the official pages are briefly inaccessible, an official Presidencia de la República or Gabinete de Seguridad press release or contemporaneous reporting by major national Mexican news outlets confirming the publications is acceptable. The market resolves NO if the government issues an explicit public statement postponing or cancelling the planned publication for that date.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt’s highly likely these reports will be published. The timeframe is reasonable and the government has been consistent with such updates in the past.

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39%
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52%
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34%
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17%
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28%
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