Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if no later than 12:00 PM on September 1, 2026 (UTC−5) the Gabinete de Seguridad's official website publicly hosts pages clearly labelled "Homicidios" and "Vehículos Robados" that show daily preliminary counts for September 1, 2026 broken down by each of Mexico’s 32 federal entities, with each state listed and a daily figure. Pages behind a login, pages that show only a national total, or pages that state that state-level reporting will start later resolve NO. Preferred authoritative source: the Gabinete de Seguridad official pages or a Gabinete de Seguridad press release, with corroboration acceptable from major national news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 37%, based on 9 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the deadline and the government's track record, it's likely these counts will be published as required. The Gabinete de Seguridad aims for transparency, especially in a high-stakes context like this.

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42%
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43%
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31%
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29%
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27%
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