Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

13%
Stable · last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Croatia transfers physical custody of the specific detained Ukrainian man to German authorities no later than September 6, 2026. The transfer must be shown by an official statement from Croatian or German authorities, or by reporting from two or more independent reputable international news organizations, for example AP, Reuters, or BBC. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 49%, based on 20 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledCroatia's on the clock, with just over two weeks left. Given the current political climate, a transfer to Germany feels very likely, especially if credible media reports surface.

13%
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64%
Stable · last 24h

42%
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51%
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31%
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16%
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