Will COP31 in Antalya conclude with a consensus decision on raising the 1.5 °C target ambition?

🤖 Context

YES if the final plenary of COP31 (UNFCCC, Antalya, 9–20 November 2026) adopts a decision explicitly committing Parties to higher ambition in limiting warming to 1.5 °C (e.g., stronger mitigation goals, clear roadmap). NO otherwise—if no such explicit, consensus-backed decision is adopted.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 45%, based on 52 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

45%

Predictions made

52

Credits staked

739

Comments

1

Opened

May 30, 2026

Closes

Nov 20, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 21, 2026

Resolution source

en.wikipedia.org

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 20, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 45% and NO 55%, based on 52 predictions and 739 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against en.wikipedia.org once the outcome is known.

Is “Will COP31 in Antalya conclude with a consensus decision on raising the 1.5 °C target ambition?” real-money betting?

No. “Will COP31 in Antalya conclude with a consensus decision on raising the 1.5 °C target ambition?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.