Will Colima volcano produce at least one ash exhalation?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 9:00 AM on August 24, 2026 and 9:00 AM on August 25, 2026 inclusive, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or CENAPRED publishes a bulletin or advisory, or a major Mexican news outlet reports explicitly that Colima volcano produced at least one exhalation that included volcanic ash. Otherwise NO. If the only public statements during that period mention only steam/gas/vapor without explicit confirmation of ash, the market resolves NO. Preferably resolved from SMN or CENAPRED.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 67%, based on 6 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

67%

Predictions made

6

Credits staked

130

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 22, 2026

Closes

Aug 24, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 67% and NO 33%, based on 6 predictions and 130 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Colima volcano produce at least one ash exhalation?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Colima volcano produce at least one ash exhalation?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.